Settlers / Research

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The learned leaf through the protocol arena

Win rate by competitor

95% interval
ntuple-leaf · slot 057.5% · n=80
expectimax-v2-plan · slot 131.3% · n=80
eta · slot 26.3% · n=80
fast · slot 35.0% · n=80
0%50%100%
run record. 80 completed of 80 planned games. 95% Wilson intervals; descriptive evidence only.

What was registered

The registered protocol was registered under patterns/ntuple-leaf before the candidate was frozen: the frozen tables at artifacts/ntuple/hex-portfolio-main.bin as the leaf of the baseline's exact search configuration (depth 3, 1.5 s budget, 8 scenarios, 4 sampled worlds) in slot 0, expectimax-v2-plan in slot 1, eta and fast in the other seats, on seeds 320 to 339 in deterministic mode, 80 games. The rule: all games complete validly with no server timeout moves; support only if the 95% interval of the paired per-seed win difference between slots 0 and 1 lies above zero.

80-game protocol cohort played all 80 with twelve matches in flight. The two searches ran as separate remote processes against the server and saw only their own seated view and event history; the tables were loaded from the file named in the policy registry, whose SHA-256 (f8e61e66…) is recorded with the candidate's receipt. Games averaged 73 turns.

Slot / policyWinsCompletedWin rate95% Wilson intervalMean points
0 / ntuple-leaf468057.5%46.6% to 67.7%8.28
1 / expectimax-v2-plan258031.2%22.2% to 42.1%6.90
2 / eta5806.2%2.7% to 13.8%6.10
3 / fast4805.0%2.0% to 12.2%6.03

The result agrees with the engine-arena screens: at depth 3 against depth 3 on 64 fresh engine seeds the contrast was +0.242, and here through the protocol on 20 seeds it is +0.263.

One game, viewed from above

The first match of the cohort, seed 320 in its first rotation, which the tables' seat won in 65 turns. It is a real recorded game chosen for the replay; it does not by itself establish which policy is stronger.

ntuple-leaf slot 0’s turn

Turn 0 · Place a settlement · 10 points to win

Ore4Ore, rolls 4, 3 of 36 dice outcomesWool11Wool, rolls 11, 2 of 36 dice outcomesBrick12Brick, rolls 12, 1 of 36 dice outcomesOre8Ore, rolls 8, 5 of 36 dice outcomesBrick3Brick, rolls 3, 2 of 36 dice outcomesBrick6Brick, rolls 6, 5 of 36 dice outcomesOre9Ore, rolls 9, 4 of 36 dice outcomesGrain5Grain, rolls 5, 4 of 36 dice outcomesLumber10Lumber, rolls 10, 3 of 36 dice outcomesWool11Wool, rolls 11, 2 of 36 dice outcomesWool5Wool, rolls 5, 4 of 36 dice outcomesDesertDesert, blocked by the robberLumber2Lumber, rolls 2, 1 of 36 dice outcomesWool9Wool, rolls 9, 4 of 36 dice outcomesLumber4Lumber, rolls 4, 3 of 36 dice outcomesGrain10Grain, rolls 10, 3 of 36 dice outcomesGrain6Grain, rolls 6, 5 of 36 dice outcomesLumber3Lumber, rolls 3, 2 of 36 dice outcomesGrain8Grain, rolls 8, 5 of 36 dice outcomes3:1Any resource 3:1 port2:1Lumber 2:1 port2:1Brick 2:1 port2:1Ore 2:1 port2:1Grain 2:1 port3:1Any resource 3:1 port3:1Any resource 3:1 port3:1Any resource 3:1 port2:1Wool 2:1 port
Settlement City Robber Roll frequency
Bank19Brick19Lumber19Wool19Grain19Ore25 development cards left

ntuple-leaf slot 0

Playing

0 VP
0 resource cards0 development cards0 settlements0 cities0 roads0 knights played
Longest route: 0

expectimax-v2-plan slot 1

0 VP
0 resource cards0 development cards0 settlements0 cities0 roads0 knights played
Longest route: 0

eta slot 2

0 VP
0 resource cards0 development cards0 settlements0 cities0 roads0 knights played
Longest route: 0

fast slot 3

0 VP
0 resource cards0 development cards0 settlements0 cities0 roads0 knights played
Longest route: 0

Actions & conversation

1 events · since the previous position

  1. Table

    The game started.

Game 1 in the scheduled cohort.

120 of 164 recorded positions. Board changes between positions are grouped.

Replay sources

Game 9d5618a5-c94e-4311-a2a4-9ad40d0b1b12 · version 14

Frames: 20d74cd3af2c892ed69591e1c0479164c3bb76762bddc7ca15ac8a519955902c

Public events: 960d87fb6e1267996c409829d57731e18223ae26db392ee53887fc9b34faeb5b

Limitations

One lineup, one seat rotation scheme, and twenty seeds. The interval is wide because the cohort is small; the engine screens on more seeds carry the sharper estimate. Both searches negotiate only with the fixed builders' willingness model, so nothing here speaks to trade-rich tables with negotiating opponents or to play against humans. The tables decide more slowly than the hand-written leaf under the same budget, which the 1.5 s cap absorbs at depth 3 but which would matter under a tighter deadline.

Run record

Detailed result and cohort context

Public frame source SHA-256: 20d74cd3af2c892ed69591e1c0479164c3bb76762bddc7ca15ac8a519955902c.

Through the authoritative server, on 20 deterministic seeds each played once per rotation of the four slots, ntuple-leaf (the expectimax-v2-plan search at depth 3 under 1.5 s with the learned hex plus portfolio tables as its leaf) won 46 of 80 games (57.5%); expectimax-v2-plan itself won 25 (31.2%), the ETA builder 5 and the fast builder 4. The paired per-seed contrast is +0.263 wins per game (95% interval +0.094 to +0.431). All 80 games completed validly with no timeout move, so the registered rule is met and ntuple-leaf is the new protocol-arena baseline.